Posted by
Logical Party on Saturday, May 10, 2008 1:00:00 PM
Judging solely by results can be flawed if testing is skewed. It’s always good to break down the statistics. Most glaring this primary season is the fact that 90% of African American Democrats (a majority of African Americans) will not even consider Clinton, granted inflamed by Bill's frustrating previous comments, while 35% of White Democrats have voted for Obama.
How will that play out in a general election when that 90% number gets diluted as Independents and Republicans join the fray, and when Working class Democrats, Reagan Democrats and Clinton supporters defect simply because they view Obama as too extreme or too inexperienced?
If one removes the monolithic vote of Africans Americans from the primaries simply because it is out of kilter with the rest of voting blocks, Obama would have lost by now. If the black vote for Obama were spilt 60/40 in his favor, Clinton would be the nominee; the same community that declared Bill Clinton the first Black President because of his administration's policies.
If the current allocation method was abandoned, and delegates assigned in proportion to total state vote, Clinton would be nearly tied. If the old “winner take all” method were used, Clinton would already be the nominee. One can also dissect the caucus state victories by Obama, where one twentieth of the population votes, and remember caucuses don't vote in general election, people do. Obama has run an excellent campaign from an organizational standpoint, but is he the best candidate?
These breakdowns, analyzing pitching, hits and runs, are necessary for the grand prize. There is only one thing to stave off a McGovern type defeat come fall, for "either or" to be VP choice so as to stem erosion of Democrat vote. The novelty will reinvigorate the electorate. Of course Obama might not want the aggravation of Clinton fatigue, and Clinton would rather wait out until 2012 when she can say "I told you so” (something Gore should have done now) if Obama loses. It might be a shotgun marriage created by a guy named Dean who runs the party that created Civil Rights yet seeks to ignore Michigan and Florida, and never put two and two together by ignoring nearly four hundred electoral votes without lowering number needed to win.
It's obvious by using the Scientific Method Clinton is the stronger candidate, but the party of Dukakis and Mondale are destined to self destruct and nominate another McGovern.
And if I were a Republican I would be content with glee.
David DiBello