Posted by
Logical Party on Tuesday, January 27, 2009 10:00:00 PM
Justin,
Sorry to have taken so long to respond to your article but I wanted enough quiet time to digest it in peace. I am one of the 11.1 million and growing, out of work, and have been working temp accounting jobs for past two years, which is no picnic due to the constant unknown, and the starts and stops.
First I want to congratulate you on not only a well written piece, but well researched one. If you google “historical unemployment rates” you will find a site that will give you month to month rates from about 1940, if not slightly before. I remember all too well Reagan’s drastic tax cuts which first put the economy into a tailspin and raised unemployment rates to 10.8%. If you viewed American Experience: The Reagan Revolution, there was a time when Reagan considered not running again, and when asked by the White House Chief of Staff what he should do, he responded, “I could try to get shot again,” making light of his increased poll numbers after that event.
Don’t get me wrong everyone hated stagflation and Carter’s inflation, too many dollars cashing too few goods, but inflation in itself is better than not having any dollars with which to chase. I was a Runner for Reagan then, and find Carter to be quite naive. I see though Obama much more astute.
I admire your writing style in that it reminds me of my own, but we digress on certain issues. I wish you had the opportunity to watch Shepherd Smith’s interview today with an economist (I believe, sorry I didn’t catch his name) who predicted 3 million jobs lost this year, and he quoted another economist (sounded like Nearulli Levini, sorry again) who actually quoted 9 million jobs lost, which at 500,000 a month currently, is approachable.
Some observations and my point of view on your assertions in your article:
First I have to disagree with your assessment that we are not, or would not have been in a Depression. The only reason we are not is that the Bush administration, who bow at the altar of capitalism and the free marketplace, bailed out institutions that if they failed would not have resulted in a depression but a financial collapse. AIG comes to mind as the biggest of those bailed out entities. Imagine if other brokerage houses and banks went the way of Lehman Brothers. Lost jobs, investments, et al. I believe only in years to come, much like an assessment of Bush, history will reveal exactly how close we just came to financial ruin. Pray Paulsen is alive so we could subpoena him.
Second, a depression now as opposed to then must be compared proportionately, meaning in the 30’s and 40’s our standard of living was an apartment to live in, food on the table and clothes for your back. That’s it; simpler times. I could never attract a woman these days saying “I pay my rent, eat and there are no holes in my clothes.”
Today a Depression would look like high unemployment where no one affords to pay their auto lease or mortgage. Bills for computers, on line access, cable TV, cell phones will go unpaid. These are costs that are no longer seen as luxuries but necessities, and again would not be seen as bragging rights for any potential paramour, but just standard fare.
Since our overhead is so high even at bare bones expenses, it will no longer take a 25% unemployment rate to create a depression. That number could be dumbed down to 15 to 18%. It sounds like it will not look like before, men selling apples on the street, but it will still be a depression, just a different kind. Leased cars abandoned on the side of a road, foreclosures sky rocket, carts full of computers and electronics.
I find it amusing that many capitalists scoff at Roosevelt saying our economy would have prevailed sooner without his bailouts and public programs. That’s only if you wait long enough for the economy to hit absolute bottom, then go up. How many more months, nay years, would that have been, and how many lost lives, given pure capitalists object to any gov’t intervention including unemployment, would that have cost? Roosevelt was worried about avoiding a 50% unemployment rate.
Capitalism is logical on paper, but not realistic in reality. Not to say it is bad, or I am one of those left wing radical socialists, but that no economy is perfect, and we need to find a compromise that is practical and realistic in terms of human existence.
Third, in the past we took men, unemployed or employed and drafted them into service, with those remaining to take the jobs of those shipped overseas. That immediately reduced the unemployment. These are the times of Rosie the Riveter, where we didn’t even have enough men behind that we enlisted women, who previously didn’t work, into the workforce. That is not the case today with a paid for “volunteer” army, although as more men enlist today because jobs are scarce, I wonder if the term “volunteer” is appropriate.
We do still benefit economically, but not to the same degree as in the past, with the military industrial buildup, but why then didn’t we mass produce those bomb resistant Hummers?
Why? Because we just had a discount war, one fought with not enough men, and savings in armament since the President wanted tax cuts during war time – absurd! What kind of sacrifice is that?
I am not against tax cuts, but we can’t go to that well all the time, it has a finite bottom as we see with the Fed rate, there is nothing left to cut. We need to start producing, but of course, thanks to globalization, we manufacture or purchase from overseas and outsource American jobs.
I supported Reagan since I was 16 in his first Presidential run. What I find illogical is this sudden hit to the economy, a massive shock to the system, where we drastically cut taxes with no respect to our federal deficit, which ultimately causes a devaluation of the dollar. That, not the sub primes, was the first sign of trouble this time around. Reagan cutting taxes from an absurd 70% rate to 28% was too much at once. I would have been happy to see a one-time hit of 15%, and 5% every year as long as we don’t destroy the national checking account, or at least pay for these cuts. I will hear the same diatribe that spending went up, but it only went up due to inflation. The loss of tax revenue created by tax cuts are what sent our dollar spiraling downward.
And for every dollar cut, we would have to produce $4 in revenue so to break even at the 28% tax rate. If we did do that, we would never have had deficits. That didn’t come to fruition in the 80’s and didn’t now. Unlike the 80’s, thanks to globalization that stagnated American wages, nothing, not even the most trivial in benefits, trickled down to the working class, those people who spend in volume to keep the financial engines running.
The sub primes are just a result of long fought deregulation by Phil Gramm and Republicans, but I will agree Democrats certainly joined the party too, under the guise of supporting low income people in their quest to fulfill Bush’s ownership society.
What I object to is the President, who stands at the desk where the buck stops, had to have known about these illegitimate loans but laid low because this industry bulked up GDP numbers, making his economy look good. Again, our economy is based on financials, not manufacturing; the buying and selling of paper, or trading of other’s assets, rather than pure manufacturing.
In the end it was everyone’s fault due to greed, brokers, buyers, investors. If I am getting money I am not going to question its origin i.e. CMO’s, and these are superficial shallow values that come back to bite people.
And so, Bush’s supply side economics, like Reagan before him, resulted in four good years and then crash and burn. And we are worse off after the fact.
As for the war itself, I am upset at the way it was run. I am not one of those crazy liberals: Saddam’s violation of UN resolution 1443 was enough justification, but I know the administration knew a rules violation wasn’t enough to convince Americans If one disagrees with the war in Iraq, that means we have to re install Saddam, and trust me, like any Godfather or Mob Boss, one will never find the money trail, oratory or writings that show that if Saddam wasn’t a co conspirator of 9/11, he was complicit. Good riddance. But I will tell you is that the reason other countries despise us is because when they were in need (the Kurds) we didn’t intercede unless there is a national interest, and that smacks to them of selfishness.
But it’s a hard choice; how do you tell a mother and father their son is going to war or died because of a conflict in another part of the world between peoples hell bent on each other’s annihilation.
My only last concern along with not sending in 500,000 troops like his father did in the Gulf War (father wasn’t consumed with tax cuts – far more reasonable man) was why not the Hills of Pakistan? Why not insert our influence, we pay them enough? We had Saddam contained.
Again wonderfully written article and I admire the research you put into it. I love to listen to Sean, but he is becoming unbearable lately, and he often quotes the 10% unemployment of the Carter administration (it was as high as 7.3% I believe for a few months) while never mentioning the 10.8% unemployment during Reaganomics. I know it’s a show, but the diatribe and rhetoric is overwhelming at times. We disagree economically, but I’m there for every Freedom Concert. I don’t care why or how one got into military service, it is the price they pay which I don’t that needs to be honored, and I am awed at their service and sacrifice. I only wish that more than 1% of our population shared the sacrifice rather than worrying about weekend plans or swilling imported wines.
Thank you. While I am sure we will agree to disagree, it is good to have intellectual discourse. Perhaps if we all did that as Americans, instead of being torn apart by a 24/7 news media that keeps the wounds fresh, we would be in better shape today, or interact more effectively. The price of innovation!
David DiBello,
Logical Party